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TRANSPORT ENERGY FUTURES
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By Ryan Falconer, PhD Candidate
Perth, Western Australia

Oil is the key source of energy for the global transport task. In
particular, many countries rely on oil to fuel domestic motor vehicle
fleets. This reliance is pronounced in the car dependent cities of
the West, including many in the United States of America (US) and
Australia.

There is an impeding crisis facing transport sectors that depend on
fossil fuels. This crisis will differentially affect those cities
that are characterised by high levels of motor vehicle travel.
Uncertain global oil supply presents a fundamental challenge to
transport sustainability. Because of this, there is an urgent need
for transport policy redress.

The focus needs to be on more compact city designs and discouragement
of private motor vehicle travel. Technological change, as an
alternative, which is commonly considered to offer solutions for
transport, presents limited real potential, because it will take a
long time for domestic vehicle fleets to be replaced by more
efficient/alternative fuel vehicles.

For decades it has been understood that there is a limited supply of
oil. In the 1950s, M. King Hubbert (1956) forecast the peak of oil
production in the US. Nevertheless, many years of transport policy
and funding, particularly in the US and Australia, have favoured
motor vehicle transport and the transport sector remains reliant on
fossil fuels (Kenworthy, 2003). Bitumen, which is formed following
the refinement of crude, is even relied on to make roads.

Strong measures are now required to limit demand for oil and
prioritise sustainable transport modes in the face of a coming
transport energy crisis. Many US and Australasian cities have been
designed in such a way to make motorised travel the only real
transport solution for many trips (Frumkin et al., 2004; Newman and
Kenworthy, 1999; Newman and Kenworthy, 2006). Having undergone
considerable development in the period post World War II, cities
including Atlanta, Los Angeles and Perth are characterised by sprawl
and extensive motor-vehicle infrastructure.

There have been government incentives for suburban growth and funding
biases in favour of motor vehicles rather than public transport
(Davison, 2004; Laird, 2001). Car dependence, therefore, is linked to
oil dependence. As a consequence of oil dependency, oil supply has
become big business. Motor and oil companies have long featured
prominently in the global Fortune 500 (Hamer, 1987). In 2004, for
example, three oil companies - Exxon Mobil, BP and Royal Dutch Shell
Group - were amongst the ten wealthiest companies worldwide. In 2004,
Exxon Mobil´s market value was US$283.6b (Au$365.4b) (Finfacts,
2005). Automobile manufacturers and suppliers have a high
representation elsewhere in the list. Together, these companies with
an interest in motoring and oil form a powerful international
political lobby group.

Just as the oil lobby is international, so too are transport
sustainability issues, particularly those tied to oil dependence. We
need to be thinking carefully about our transport future, because one
that relies on oil for energy is not sustainable. We also need to be
thinking about the consequences of rapid motorisation in developing
nations, which is likely to perpetuate existing concerns.

November 25, 2007 | 8:22 PM Comments  0 comments

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