By James Ward

Young professionals may well be more aware and engaged about Peak Oil
than other age groups. We may also find it easier to be more frugal,
have a recent broad education about the opportunities (and
shortcomings) of technology and efficiency, and be able to see
through the hype about hydrogen, biofuels and other alternatives that
capture the attention of politicians, the media and others. Young
Professionals are vulnerable to the shocks that Peak Oil will bring
to our society, but we are also well equipped to tackle energy
descent, perhaps more realistically than others who simplistically
advocate alternative fuels and vague technological fixes.

Peak Oil - a quick overview

"Peak Oil" refers to the point at which the world reaches its maximum
rate of production of useful conventional petroleum, after which oil
production begins to decline. Estimates for the date of this vary
from 2004 to 2030, with the most credible predictions converging on
the period 2008-2015. Peak Oil does not suggest that we are about to
run out of oil -far from it- just that after the peak, we will begin
to run short of oil.

The actual date of the peak is somewhat less relevant than our
ability to deal with it when it eventually comes, and there is no
doubt that the peak will eventually come - declining oil production
is inevitable. Substitution by biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel) can only
replace a small percentage of liquid fuel demand due to limited spare
land and heavy energy investment in growing the crops. Unconventional
petroleum (heavy oil, oil shales, tar sands), and alternatives such
as coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids are far too greenhouse-gas-
intensive to consider seriously, and in any case it appears that the
world no longer has enough time to install such infrastructure on
sufficient scale.

Basic foreseeable problems include growing shortages of liquid fuel
for transportation, and resultant price-spiking. Aviation is
particularly vulnerable as it cannot readily make use of any
alternative fuel. The broader economic impacts are largely
unpredictable; suffice to say that until now the Western world has
enjoyed fantastic economic growth in unison with growing global oil
consumption at cheap prices. Even though OECD countries have been
improving their efficiency for converting oil into economic activity,
it is hard to see the economic curves still going up when the overall
oil curve starts to go down.


In view of the perceived threat posed to our industrialised society
by Peak Oil, ASPO-Australia advocates an approach of prudent risk
assessment across all sectors to help prepare areas that are
particularly vulnerable to the disruptions that Peak Oil will cause.
The following document summarises some perceived threats and
opportunities to the group broadly known as "young professionals".
Not every young professional will be faced with every threat and
opportunity on this list; the specific set of risks and opportunities
will be governed by each individual´s circumstances and choices. But,
it is hoped that this list will help inspire young professionals as
to choices we can make that will influence what happens in Australia
in the future at national, state, local and personal levels.

Major opportunities

Accustomed to frugality (student lifestyle)
Many young professionals have recently been students, perhaps living
less materialistic, cheaper and less resource intensive lives. This
"frugal-student" mindset is very valuable if it can be maintained
against the pressures of materialism and resource consumption.
Students generally don't bother with (or can learn to live without)
expensive flash clothes, new cars, and some of the other trappings of
the broader world.

Potential to "be part of the solution"
Whilst young professionals may typically hold junior positions in
their organisations today, those who find themselves moving into more
senior roles within the next 5-10 years can strive to effect change
and reduce their organisation´s oil dependence.

Young professionals possess sufficient enthusiasm, imagination and
energy to positively embrace career and lifestyle changes
necessitated by Peak Oil

Less "tied down" to a location
Young people may not be committed to a mortgage or other heavy
location-dependent expenses, and hence may be able to adapt to
lifestyle changes more easily, or move to where work is available.

Not necessarily locked into a career
Although probably already on a particular career path, young
professionals should be able to change their career direction if
required, without incurring an enormous loss of income.

Potential to make preparations for the event of a late peak
If the optimistic projections are correct (peak in 2020-2030) then
today´s young professionals may have the opportunity to spend the
next 15-20 years establishing a frugal lifestyle that is of low oil
dependence.
Major vulnerabilities

Vulnerable to late peak
Supposing the more optimistic predictions (2020-2030 peak) are valid,
today´s young professionals will typically be in the 45-55 age group
when Peak Oil occurs.

Of all the age groups, today´s young people should be the most
concerned about Peak Oil because it will happen in our lifetime.

Relatively low income
* Renting or buying a house close to the city (close to reliable and
convenient transport) to reduce oil dependency is often too expensive
to afford on a graduate/junior salary
* Common responses are to over-commit financially (get into too much
debt), or buy in outer suburbs with inherently greater car-dependence
* A graduate with a low income may have a reduced capability to
absorb increased costs of transport, as well as housing and general
goods and services that may go up in price in response to Peak Oil
(i.e. high inflation due to high transport costs)

Job & income security
Certain goods and services may become redundant or unviable in a
world of increasing transport costs, leading to more lay-offs and
greater competition between job applicants (and potentially lower
wages for those who are employed)

Junior career position
* Pressure to focus only on "core business" and individual career
advancement
* Effecting change within an organisation is difficult from the lower
rungs of the corporate ladder, so preparing one´s company for Peak
Oil (and hence improving job security) may be difficult

Lack of capital assets
* Mitigation strategies such as buying a more efficient car are
beyond the reach of most young people
* People who do not own their own homes are somewhat less well
equipped to opt for more self-sufficient lifestyles

Young families
Couples or single parents with young children may have high transport
needs and/or generally high living expenses, meaning they are doubly
vulnerable to all of the above


Minor vulnerabilities

Travel aspirations
Overseas, long-distance travel is a goal of many young people and may
become prohibitively expensive due to increases in fuel costs and/or
rationing

Social life
Often involves driving to places that are poorly serviced by public
transport, and/or at times when public transport is unavailable

Entrenched perceptions & negative "green" connotations
The dominant point of view may need to change before people will
seriously consider taking what are traditionally considered
"alternative" transportation such as cycling and public transport.

General comments

Young professionals often have peers, mentors, elders and family who
all deny the importance of Peak Oil, creating a very strong social
incentive to ignore the issue. The social impact of having
aspirations threatened or dreams shattered should never be
underestimated. According to ASPO-Australia, aside from the high-
priority action of raising public awareness and community engagement,
the priorities for individuals or organisations preparing for Peak
Oil should be:
· Frugality (highest priority, e.g. learning to use less transport),
· Efficiency (e.g. using smaller cars and car-pooling), and
· Alternative fuels (lowest priority, e.g. running cars on ethanol).


Conclusions

Young professionals simultaneously face significant threats and great
opportunities due to Peak Oil. There will be many new opportunities
for innovation and problem-solving, especially in terms of improving
the efficiency and viability of various activities in the face of
declining oil production.

Housing affordability in a climate of steeply increasing transport
costs and associated economic effects (e.g. inflation leading to
interest rate rises) will present major threats to young
professionals and especially young families who are trying to buy
their own homes. However, in some ways young people may be better
prepared for frugal living (and may have less to lose) compared to
affluent middle-aged professionals, and therefore the lifestyle
changes may not come as such a shock.

Many young professionals will be faced with uncertain future in their
current career, but there may be entirely new career paths opening up
that are unexpected. An ability to change one´s career direction and
adapt to new markets will be essential, as well as a general
willingness to accept lifestyle adaptations. Above all, there is
always room to hope: an attitude of cautious optimism is highly
recommended!

ASPO-Australia: Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil &
Gas
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
Young Professionals Working Group
Mr James Ward
james.ward@aspo-australia.org.au